I’ve noticed that some of the conservative bloggers I read and respect are blogging their non-bleeding hearts out for Jim Bryson, Republican candidate for governor. I can’t help but believe that Bryson’s candidacy has as much traction as a Kia with bald tires attempting to be driven out of Radnor Lake. I say this as an employee of the current governor (I am WAY down the food chain in the Health Dept.) and not as an advocate for either candidate.
I believe that Bryson’s chances to take the state house are roughly akin to the Cubs chances of winning the 2006 World Series (currently 200-1 against if you pay attention to that sort of thing). I state this confidentally for two reasons: the first personal and anecdotal, the second is pretty dang interesting.
Reason 1: I have a good friend name Jim. He is well-read and interested in politics. He is a Reagan Republican and a philosophical conservative. When I asked him what he thought about the Republican candidate for governor he said – “There’s a Republican candidate for governor??”
Reason 2: The market place. Unlike a straw poll where you can load up a bunch of supporters on a bus and haul them down to vote for your favorite feline-killing son, the marketplace forces you to put your monetary cabbage where your O-pinionated mouth is. Tradesports.Com is a futures index that allows you to buy futures contracts for events and possible occurrences (e.g. You can buy a contract to ‘win’ $10.00 for $1.95 that Argentina will win the World Cup). You could also stupidly pay .69 to win $10.00 that the avian flu will be diagnosed in the United States before the end of June, 2006.
To get to my salient point, one thin dollar will buy you a futures contract that will net you $10.00 if Bryson is elected governor (Tradesports has contracts for all major political races). So, if you Bryson supporters are REALLY confident, here’s a chance to make some moola and endorse your guy. In case you haven’t figured it out yet this ain’t exactly odds that would make the average gambler swoon. Chances appear to be better for an air strike by the US or Israel against Iran before March 2007 than a Bryson victory (twice as good according to the marketplace).
For what it’s worth, $3.00 will get you a possible $10.00 contract that the Democrat candidate will win the 2008 Tennesse Senate seat.
In contrast, you’d have to pay $9.50 to buy a $10.00 contract that Roger Federer will win Wimbledon (which is pretty much a no-brainer).
Tradesports works just like a real futures market (such as oil, wheat, pig bellys) with two key differences: 1) you are buying futures in a sporting, cultural, weather, political or entertainment occurrence, and, very importantly, 2) insider trader is totally allowed, which is why Tradesports ‘called’ the Supreme Court for Alito before most of America knew who he was or how to spell his name.
Like I said, I’ve seen the FUTURES, and Bryson’s name isn’t writ bright, but instead in one dollar shares. I’m not a gambler (and don’t contribute financially to Tradesports coffers), but if I was, I wouldn’t be wagering on Mr. Bryson.