I’ve seen the future, and its name isn’t Bryson

I’ve noticed that some of the conservative bloggers I read and respect are blogging their non-bleeding hearts out for Jim Bryson, Republican candidate for governor. I can’t help but believe that Bryson’s candidacy has as much traction as a Kia with bald tires attempting to be driven out of Radnor Lake. I say this as an employee of the current governor (I am WAY down the food chain in the Health Dept.) and not as an advocate for either candidate.

I believe that Bryson’s chances to take the state house are roughly akin to the Cubs chances of winning the 2006 World Series (currently 200-1 against if you pay attention to that sort of thing). I state this confidentally for two reasons: the first personal and anecdotal, the second is pretty dang interesting.

Reason 1: I have a good friend name Jim. He is well-read and interested in politics. He is a Reagan Republican and a philosophical conservative. When I asked him what he thought about the Republican candidate for governor he said – “There’s a Republican candidate for governor??”

Reason 2: The market place. Unlike a straw poll where you can load up a bunch of supporters on a bus and haul them down to vote for your favorite feline-killing son, the marketplace forces you to put your monetary cabbage where your O-pinionated mouth is. Tradesports.Com is a futures index that allows you to buy futures contracts for events and possible occurrences (e.g. You can buy a contract to ‘win’ $10.00 for $1.95 that Argentina will win the World Cup). You could also stupidly pay .69 to win $10.00 that the avian flu will be diagnosed in the United States before the end of June, 2006.

To get to my salient point, one thin dollar will buy you a futures contract that will net you $10.00 if Bryson is elected governor (Tradesports has contracts for all major political races). So, if you Bryson supporters are REALLY confident, here’s a chance to make some moola and endorse your guy. In case you haven’t figured it out yet this ain’t exactly odds that would make the average gambler swoon. Chances appear to be better for an air strike by the US or Israel against Iran before March 2007 than a Bryson victory (twice as good according to the marketplace).

For what it’s worth, $3.00 will get you a possible $10.00 contract that the Democrat candidate will win the 2008 Tennesse Senate seat.

In contrast, you’d have to pay $9.50 to buy a $10.00 contract that Roger Federer will win Wimbledon (which is pretty much a no-brainer).

Tradesports works just like a real futures market (such as oil, wheat, pig bellys) with two key differences: 1) you are buying futures in a sporting, cultural, weather, political or entertainment occurrence, and, very importantly, 2) insider trader is totally allowed, which is why Tradesports ‘called’ the Supreme Court for Alito before most of America knew who he was or how to spell his name.

Like I said, I’ve seen the FUTURES, and Bryson’s name isn’t writ bright, but instead in one dollar shares. I’m not a gambler (and don’t contribute financially to Tradesports coffers), but if I was, I wouldn’t be wagering on Mr. Bryson.

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7 Comments

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7 responses to “I’ve seen the future, and its name isn’t Bryson

  1. MCO

    John, I don’t disagree that Bryson’s candidacy is a longshot; however, I am sure that you understand as a Democrat in what has become a majority Republican state, that we choose who to support based on political principles and go from there. I believe that Bryson is a good man who would serve the state well if he overcomes the odds and wins.

  2. I wasn’t intending to imply that Bryson is a bad guy or that his opponent SHOULD or should not win. I am fascinated that in a state that is clearly evolving into a Republican state that the Bryson candidacy doesn’t seem to be getting anywhere.

    I had been wanting to write about Tradesports.com for awhile because I thought it was an interesting marketplace tool and the Bryson business gave me that opportunity.

    Trust me, I know about longshots. I was a Young Democrat at David Lipscomb many years ago when McGovern ran, and on the other side of the coin, I generally supported whomever ran against Bill Boner despite the fact that their chances to unseat the harmonica-playing-buffoon was as good as my chances of convincing you to vote for the Green Party in the next election.

  3. It has nothing to do with the post, and I am sorry …

    But ol’ Bill shoulda changed his last name a long time ago. That name lends itself all to well to polical jokes.

  4. Elizabeth – not only political jokes…ANY comedian or gag-writer who couldn’t get comediacally aroused at THAT name in conjunction with THAT man would have to be considered an out-of-work comedian or gag-writer.

    Please don’t be sorry for chiming in..i’m grateful that anyone takes the time to READ my stuff, much less post a comment.

  5. John,
    One of the reasons Bryson isn’t doing so well at the moment with his own party is the fact Republicans already have a Republican Governor in Bredesen.
    Bredesen is for big business, cutting social programs, made draconian cuts to health care and as of last week, announced he would vote for a ban on gay marriage. So I guess the biggest difference between these two Republicans runing for Governor is at least Bryson fought tooth and nail to keep the sickest of the sick on TennCare.

  6. Sharon is right: the reason Bryson\’s campaign is going nowhere is because Bredesen has made the difficult choices he had to make to reign in out-of-control government spending and get the state\’s fiscal house in order. After doing that, Bredesen is putting together a state-sponsored health insurance program that will be sustainable.

    Bryson, on the other hand, talks out of one side of his mouth about fiscal conservatism and being responsible with the people\’s money, while out of the other side of his mouth he talks about throwing money at every problem that comes down the pike.

    It\’s not difficult for the people of Tennessee to see who the true leader is in this race.

  7. Milton–
    You’re Kopp, right? You are a really good spinner. (and if I ever run for office, I hope you’re on my side!)

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